FX Weekly Outlook (09/04 – 13/04)


11/04/2018 - RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speech: The Governor Lowe’s speech can cause volatility in the Aussie dollar. The traders try to understand the implications of his speech on the interest rate. Governor Lowe, being the head of the central bank, has the most impact on the interest rate decision that any other official in the nation.

11/04/2018 - Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY): Consumer prices depicts or accounts for most of inflation. Inflation is an important economic indicator for the traders, as the rise or fall of inflation can cause a shift in the interest rate. Thus, having a strong effect on the currency. If the “Actual” number is better than the “Consensus” then it is good for the currency.

12/04/2018 - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: Important details from the ECB board and the minutes of their meeting that gives us an indication of where the interest rate will be.

$EURUSD has been trading in the narrow range and has suffered losses. We see that that the business in the euro-zone has already peaked - German retail sales, factory orders, and Industrial Output – all falling short of expectations. The Core inflation is sitting at 1%, and we do not see much movement in the inflation either. The US has disappointed us with the Job numbers last week @ 103k in March. The currency pair has touched a 3 year high in Mid-February @ 1.2555, whereas March could not hold 1.2477 for much long enough. I would go short on the pair.

$AUDUSD The traders are direction less with the pair at the moment. They are holding the pair at 0.77 but the fundamentals behind the Aussie dollar does not look too strong. The major focus for the traders for this pair would be Governor Lowe’s speech on Wednesday. Till then, we see a strong support at 0.7610 and a strong resistance at 0.7740.