USD outlook pre-ADP (April)

The DX has weakened over the past few months. But, if we look at the near-term outlook of DX before the ADP non-farm payroll announcement (April ‘18), we see that the market sentiment is very cautious and the volatility has been low in the last few days. Having said that, there is some bullishness seen in the recent “Daily” candlesticks. A strong resistance clouds around 90.20 (R2; R1 being 90) and the announcement has a strong positive deviation from the Forecast, we can infer that DX will break the R2. The announcements can be very risky to trade but we can gain some confidence based on the market psychology that there is a short term bullish divergence and the forecast figure being 208K, there is a strong possibility of getting a positive news.

Having said that, the short-medium term outlook for DX is seen to be in downtrend and we can expect a move towards 88.20.